This could be a Big Odile. Just about 10 days after the previous cyclonic-influenced bout of heavy rainfall from Hurricane Norbert on Sun/Mon, Sept 7-8, 2014, we are due to get a sequel in the form of Hurricane Odile on Wed/Thur Sept 17-18. I took some screen shots of the path that Odile has taken, and also posted some weather graphics issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. I got two inches of rain last week. Will I see a repeat of something similar in two days? I admit that I hope so – I never, ever turn away rainfall, especially since before mid-August I had seen only two inches of rain for the ENTIRE YEAR. Tropical systems are beneficial to the hydrology and ecology of this region, even if I-15 happens to get washed out just a little bit north of Las Vegas….
Stay tuned!
Screen shot of the Western Conus satellite water vapor loop, taken at about 9 PM Pacific Daylight Time on Sun Sept 14, 2014. The eye of Hurricane Odile is making landfall in the Los Cabos region at the southernmost tip of the Baja Peninsula as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of about 125 MPH (nearly 200 KPH). Note the powerful moisture surge Headed northwards towards the southwestern US.
This photo was taken at about 2 PM on Mon Sept 15, 2014. Note how the eye of Hurricane Odile has moved a couple hundred miles farther north, and so has the strong moisture surge, which is now entering far southern Arizona. Odile has weakened in the past 18 hours to a Category 1 storm due to disruption of the circulation from the mountains of the Baja Peninsula and the mainland of Mexico, but is more than capable of bringing 4 to 8 inches of rainfall or even more to most of that region.
National Hurricane Center graphic showing the path and force of Hurricane Odile’s winds as of about 2 PM Pacific Daylight Time on Monday Sept 15, 2014.
The ensemble mean of Hurricane Odile’s potential pathway over the next few days. Odile is expected to be a remnant low by Wednesday, but the remaining circulation and associated moisture will likely bring very heavy rainfall to much of the southwestern US and northwestern Mexico. Just because cyclonic systems almost never reach the desert southwest or California as actual intact tropical storms or hurricanes does not mean they don’t have occasionally dramatic impacts upon the weather there.
In case anyone wants to know, my ranch near the small town of Yucca, AZ is located between the words “Needles” and “Wikieup” in the southern portion of the map, right about where the “s” in Needles is. I’m going outside now to plant some potted trees before it rains, so that they get a good soaking, which will help them become established. 
Tropical storm impacts upon the desert southwest are not exactly rare, but they are not really that common either. Cyclonic systems form in the eastern Pacific Ocean every year, just as they do in the Atlantic basin. But due to the prevailing winds and the angle of the coastline which runs to the northwest, most of these storms head out to sea, don’t affect land, and are never mentioned in the news. But once every year or two, one is steered northwards over Baja California and then the remnants enter the desert southwest and California.
What is unusual is the close timing of two systems, Hurricane Norbert last week and Hurricane Odile coming up, both migrating up the Baja coastline in under two weeks. September is the month that this is most likely to happen, although it can occur in August and October too, and very rarely in July or November. Mind you that by the time it reaches us in Arizona, Odile will be nowhere near even a tropical storm – just a huge area of spinning clouds, humidity, and thunderstorms that can bring rain. Lots of rain.
Erosion and flooding are issues here when this pattern occurs. Last week the Phoenix metropolitan area got 3 to 6 inches of rainfall on Monday Sept 8 thanks to Hurricane Norbert’s remains, and I-15 was washed out and closed for several days by severe flooding about 50 miles north of Las Vegas, also thanks to Norbert. Odile has the potential to do this too, especially since things are still damp from last week’s heavy rains. See my post on Hurricane Norbert for more on this below: